BREAKDOWN: PACQUIAO VS. COTTO

By Joe DeMaria | November 13, 2009

Don't miss all the action when WBO welterweight champion Miguel Cotto puts his title on the line against pound-for-pound champion Manny Pacquiao this Saturday, November 14th, at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada and televised live on HBO Pay-Per-View. What's at stake? How will the fight play out? Check out the FightHype Breakdown to see why you do not want to miss the event of the year to find out the outcome.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN...

The fight of the year is upon us. Not only is this a huge event, but it is also a great matchup between two guys who don't know how to be part of a boring fight.

How do we know it's a huge event? Well, people who don't even watch boxing are talking about it…people who probably do not even care for the sport have come up to me to ask my opinion…water cooler talk…random sports fans at the local bar…waiters in your favorite restaurant…they are all talking about it.

How do we know it's a great matchup? Simple! Those who pay close attention to the sport are mostly split on how this one is going to play out. Forget the odds on this fight for a minute; that's just based upon how the oddsmakers anticipate people will bet. The aficionados are going back and forth trying to convince the other side to why they are backing the wrong horse. Case in point, for years now, fellow prognosticator John Chavez from The Boxing Truth and I have been going back and forth on fights, exchanging phone calls, e-mails and the clockwork like fight night texts. With the exception of one fight, we have always found a common ground, even on that once in a blue moon occasion that we disagreed upon the likely outcome. That one fight? Jermain Taylor versus Winky Wright, when I backed Winky and he was sold on a JT win. It seems only fitting for it to have ended in a draw, doesn't it? Now here we are, three and a half years later, with no common ground to speak of once again.

Firepower certainly seems like a fitting title for this promotion. Power, class and strength pitted against speed, precision and explosiveness…firepower indeed. One fighter has made his home at welterweight, handling all but a single opponent while consistently fighting the absolute best the division has to offer. The other has enjoyed a meteoric rise through the weight classes while taking on anyone who would fight him, seeming to get better as he has gotten bigger. On Saturday, he will be fighting for a historic seventh title in a seventh weight class.

For the most part, both men are looking at the same options going forward with a couple small exceptions. Whether it's Floyd Mayweather or Shane Mosley, should he handle Andre Berto this January, those are the two biggest fights for either man. But there is also the Antonio Margarito rematch for Cotto, assuming Margarito is reinstated as expected. I know…Cotto has said he will never share a ring with Margarito again, but money talks and win or lose, that is an extremely sellable fight and an opportunity to exact some revenge on the Tijuana native. Sure, a Cotto win would likely move him into a matchup with Mosley or Mayweather, but Margarito will be an option, especially if he is unable to come away with the win against Pacman. For Pacquiao, that other option is a third fight with Juan Manuel Marquez. Rumors are already swirling that in March, the new Cowboys Stadium will play host to a big fight and Jerry Jones loves the idea of Pacquiao–Marquez III landing there. Again, if Pacman is able to defeat Cotto, there are bigger fights out there, but they may not be so makeable. So while a loss would all but guarantee a third fight with Marquez, a win could net fight fans the same result.

WHEN THE BELL RINGS...

Alright, so we have gotten through the ring walks, the National anthems, and all the pageantry that is associated with a big boxing event like this. Every single person in the MGM Grand Garden Arena is on their feet and you can literally feel the energy through your television.

Now, the real question is how fast this one gets started. You know Pacquiao is ready and willing to set a blazing pace, but will Cotto allow him to? I think we can safely assume that uptempo from the opening bell is not the approach Cotto is looking to take. The Puerto Rican star wants to slow this one down and lull Pacquiao into a false sense of security. Let Pacman think he is dictating the pace and controlling the action, when in actuality, Cotto is laying back and biding his time until he feels like he has Pac's timing and movements down. But will Pacquiao let him do that? If it's one thing we know about Pacquiao's style, it's that he no longer has a set and predictable approach. Where his offensive attacks are coming from are varied and when you think you have him figured out, he feints and attacks from a different angle once his opponent bites.

The most important punch for Cotto in this fight is his jab. It is stiff, accurate, and consistent; without it, he will be a target. Every time he senses that Pac is within punching range, he must let it go, but forget the head, just shoot for the chest. Even if he is unable to time Pac early, give him something to deal with when he is going to launch into one of his offensive spurts.

For Pacquiao, I expect a newer weapon to be very important and that is the uppercut. It's not a punch Pacman has used all that much in the past, but Cotto can be hit with it. You know the Filipino icon is going to make use of that long straight left behind his jab, but when Cotto hunches over to keep a tight D and his chin out of the straight left's scope, expect to see a shortened uppercut as Pac steps to his left. He won't lead with it, that would be a gift to Cotto, but he will shoot it like Zab did when Cotto is planted…it won't be as long or explosive, but it will be more accurate.

As we make our way through the first round, don't expect a ridiculously fast pace right away, but do expect an incredible amount of intensity in there. Cotto does not want to get marked up right away, though he would like to give Manny an idea of what welterweight power is really like. For Pac, it's the same story; get the offense rolling, get your opponent wondering what's going on and make a statement. It seems to me like in almost every first round of a Pacquiao fight, something happens. There is at least a decent chance we see something like that on Saturday night as well, whether it be a cut or Cotto getting buckled on something he does not see coming. Don't be surprised. It doesn't take a fast pace to make a statement.

After getting a slight taste of what he has in front of him, expect Cotto to settle in a little bit and try to slow the pace even more. By the middle of the second or third round, you will know full well how this one is going to go…either Cotto will begin showing signs of comfort in there and an ability to blunt the speed or he will have that look on his face we have seen so many of Pacman's opponents default to. Fight fans know the look all too well.

The key for Cotto is to get Pacquiao to become apprehensive and aware. The only way to do that is to find a way to keep the pace slower and whenever Pac gets to the inside, grab him, push him around and maybe even fire a well-placed shot below the belt line. Get inside his head and get him out of his game plan because trying to fight fire with fire will not be the answer.

The third and fourth rounds should prove to be better for Cotto, but still, Pacquiao will be getting his shots in. It is completely possible and likely that Pac gets caught with something he sees coming. In fact, I expect it, but on the flipside, I know Cotto will taste plenty of shots he does not see coming. Emulating what Marquez did will be a big part of the plan. The problem I see with that is the simple fact that Cotto is not as fast as Marquez was nor is he quite as good of a counter-puncher and his straight right is nowhere near as good as Marquez's. Cotto's best shot is the left hook. I won't call him a one-handed fighter, but he clearly does not possess the type of right hand that will undo a guy like Pac. It goes back to that jab. The other part to all of that is the version of Pacquiao that Cotto will have in front of him. I see a different fighter than the one Marquez faced. This Pacquiao avoids shots, uses a right, is more explosive and more accurate. No, Pac is not a defensive wizard in the Bernard Hopkins or Floyd Mayweather mold, but his offense combined with his legs make him difficult to get to. Pacman may have the fastest feet in the sport and when he shoots the left after a jab from one side and quickly slides to the other and then gets out, he is extremely difficult to hit. He is rarely in the same spot for a long period of time and he no longer pulls straight back. Everything he does, whether it is offensive or defensive, involves angles and they are consistently varying. Further, Miguel Cotto has heavy feet and he needs to plant before getting off. Antonio Margarito was getting to Cotto early and while he was able to do so by walking through everything thrown at him, he also did so by using one direction from one angle. That will not be the case with Manny Pacquiao.

By the time the fifth round starts, a little more of a fight will be on. Cotto will be trying to bang the smaller man out of there and Pacquiao will be trying to shred Cotto with his combos just before getting out of dodge. "Don't wait for the change" is what Freddy Roach will be preaching and Pac will be putting those instructions to work as Cotto tries to get to him.

The real story now is how the script for the middle rounds leading into the late rounds reads. Will it be brute force bludgeoning the rambunctious dynamo or will it be an exhibition in frenetic offensive explosions, followed by quick escape routes used to stay at a safe distance?

THE CALL...

Miguel Cotto has seen speed before. He saw it against Zab Judah, but that speed was one punch at a time and easily distracted. He saw it against Shane Mosley, but that speed came from a conventional stance and was squared up for the most part. This is a different kind of speed and a different kind of fighter…not to mention, that was a different Miguel Cotto. I do not see the same pre-Margarito version of Cotto. I see a guy who is a little reluctant to take that extra shot in order to land his and whose reflexes look a little slower. Would I take the Mosley version of Cotto over the second Marquez version of Pacquiao? You bet. But neither of those guys will be in the ring this Saturday night. In fact, I question how much stronger Cotto will really be. We all know Pacquiao will be faster, both with his hands and feet, and it seems like we all have been conditioned to just accept that Cotto will be much stronger in there. Don't buy it!

On top of all that, there was the story of Gato Figueroa being dismissed as Cotto's chief sparring partner. Why? This is the guy who got Cotto ready for Judah, they worked together before and Gato is a veteran, not some kid looking to make a name for himself by showing up fighters as their sparring partner. Stories like this are only newsworthy when the guy brought in as a sparring partner looks like the guy getting ready for the championship fight. My guess is that he was driving Cotto nuts in there and Cotto did not want to deal with it. Cotto has already talked of retirement plans, he has made millions and he has another $12 million on the way for this fight. While I expect him to show up in shape and maybe even a little drained from training too long and making weight too early, I am not sure he did all the right things in camp. Meanwhile, Pacquiao sparred with guys like Jose Luis Castillo and young undefeated middleweight puncher Shawn Porter, who were not only told to try and drop Pacman, they were offered money to do so.

So, in short, I am not expecting to see this one enter the late rounds. I expect a good, intense, occasionally explosive, somewhat bloody boxing match that becomes a little more of a fight when Cotto is beginning to grow weary and succumb to Pacquiao's speed and activity. My only reservation here is what round the ref stops this one in. Will it be the sixth, seventh or eighth?

Give me Pacquiao by sixth round TKO in a fight that delivers as promised.

The next step will be seeing if "Firepower" is able to do as well on the pay-per-view circuit as Mayweather vs. Marquez…and since we're making predictions, I will call it a cool 1.2 million buys.

Enjoy!

Source: http://fighthype.com/pages/content6202.html